North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota?

by Beltway Dem, Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 02:50:08 PM EST

Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama

So we're 116 days out before we start counting electoral votes, and that is a lifetime in politics, but if you're the Republicans' Apparently-Not-Ready-for-Prime-Time Presumptive Nominee, you have got to be noticing some distressing things.  Like, say, North Dakota.  

If I were John McCain, I might be annoyed, or worried, or maybe just a touch suicidal about Rasmussen's poll for North Dakota (7/8/08 - 500 LV, 4.5% MOE):

Obama 43
McCain 43

See, the problem here for Mr. McCain is that in 2004, North Dakota went this way:

Bush  62.9
Kerry 35.5

And let's not forget everyone's favorite tune, the 2000 race:

Bush  61
Gore  33

I could keep going backward, but I think you get the drift.  Everyday Mr. McCain needs to spend in a place like North Dakota is one more day that he doesn't get to spend in a place like Pennsylvania or Ohio.

Mr. McCain's problem is that there are a surfeit of states where he needs to win handily but he's on the brink of losing--places like Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina.  A way to look at what this means is to think about the places the candidates are campaigning.  Since June 20, Obama has made 23 campaign stops, and 13 of them have been in red states.  He's been campaigning in places like Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nevada.  Meanwhile, Darth McVader has also been campaigning in places like Indiana, Colorado, and Nevada.

I mean, c'mon.  The Republican nominee has to campaign in Indiana?  If the Republican faithful need some razor blades, I'll be happy to set them up for them.




Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, North Dakota (all tags)

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Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment


I thought this was rich (2.00 / 6)

rich:

Of Senator McCain's 18 campaign stops since June 20, four were in Ohio, two were in Nevada, one was in Colorado, and one was in Indiana - all of which President Bush carried in 2004. Unlike Obama, McCain has visited only two states considered a battleground in 2008 that went Democratic in 2004, Michigan, which he visited yesterday, and Pennsylvania.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 02:52:31 PM EST

Wow... (2.00 / 2)

With the situation looking this dire for the CReeps, I'm actually seeing now how we can beat them to the ground this November. Great find! :-)


No way, no how, no McCain! :-)
by atdleft on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:07:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I thought this was rich (none / 0)

Bush is the one who said we should fight them over there instead of at home.  We're only taking his advice.


Another Clintonista against John McCain
by psychodrew on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 02:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (2.00 / 2)

Cool. And it looks like Obama's got a prominent Obamacon:

Hagel to Join Obama on Iraq Trip
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/07/11 hagel-to-join-obama-on-iraq-trip


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 02:56:15 PM EST

In Fairness (sort of) (2.00 / 3)

Ole John needs to go to the states you mentioned since he needs to go to places where people will show up to see and hear him. It's going to look pretty sad when he's the only one who shows up at a campaign stop. (oh I forgot. mclieberbush will be on his arm so that will make two people)


Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
by jsfox on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:00:18 PM EST

I'm not that surprised (2.00 / 1)

I don't really expect that North Dakota will go to Obama in anything other situation than a total electoral landslide, but, still, McCain can't take the west for granted.  People out there, for the most part, vote Republican because of various crux issues.  Obama is good at playing down crux issues and selling himself as someone who will listen to them and take their concerns to heart.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:06:37 PM EST

Frankly, (2.00 / 3)

I agree completely with your analysis, but there are two things the current situation does to help our long-term prospects:

1.  As I mentioned, it makes McCain have to defend his home turn; but

2.  It also begins to create the notion that Obama is a winner and McCain is pathetic.  

Those two items make the idea of an electoral landslide slightly more plausible.  If the psychology stays with a touch longer, we might just do something big.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:12:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Frankly, (2.00 / 2)

Your diary made me happy.  You comment made me cheerful.  Mojo from a happy cheerful D!


A drink whenever Palin makes a well-argued, semantically intact, logical and lucid argument -- or WASILLA for short.
by January 20 on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 04:15:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

North Dakota (none / 0)

is one of those small states where visits and ads can make the difference.

A swing of 15,000 votes in North Dakota is HUGE. It's not so big in a state like Florida.

I can see North Dakota ended up being a McCain win by less than 10...5 even.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 05:26:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota (none / 0)

I was thinking the same about Alaska.

One trip to Anchorage gets what percent of the state?


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 05:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota (none / 0)

Anchorage has about 45% of the population of Alaska.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 06:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota (none / 0)

There you go, then.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (2.00 / 1)

Darth McVader? ahaaa. thats so fitting- i love it.


by alyssa chaos on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:10:18 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (2.00 / 3)

Eeek!  Dems and libruls is everwhere!!! Git back and highde on teh strayt tallk eckspress!!


by KLRinLA on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:11:23 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (none / 0)

Judging from the flak you've been aiming at Obamam the last few days, I'm surprised that a post like this a) has generated responses and b) has generated positive responses.


by spirowasright on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:12:39 PM EST

I don't think (2.00 / 6)

you were aiming this comment at me.  Once Hillary lost, I signed on to Mr. Obama because he's the only train we have.  I already was disappointed.  The game is D v. R for me.  I am a D.  Obama is a D.  Darth McVader is an R.  I don't sweat the details except for the math at this point.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:15:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't think (2.00 / 1)

Fair enough.

If I didn't say it before, welcome aboard.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 08:08:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The GOP is kinda unpopular these days... (2.00 / 1)

Go figure.

-chris


Motley Moose, Troll Free Blogging
by chrisblask on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:24:42 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (2.00 / 3)

North Dakota + Montana + Alaska = 9 electoral votes. That's more than Kentucky or South Carolina.

Add in South Dakota and two electoral votes from Nebraska, and you get 14 EVs. Almost as much as Michigan.

Plus these small states are cheap to compete in.


by Angry White Democrat on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:28:42 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (none / 0)

Yeah, Obama could drop just $500K in each state and the results would be impressive.  Whereas we'll be dumping tens of millions into Ohio and Florida for only incrementally better results.


by Skaje on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 05:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (none / 0)

The West just might be more of a possibility for the Dems.
Hey National GOP!
You wanted the South so bad?
Here, take it.
But now you have to give something to the other guys...
by spirowasright on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 05:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Amazing what happens when you visit (2.00 / 2)

a state and prominent Democrats in that state go to bat for you.


by Geekesque on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:40:17 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (2.00 / 1)

The question now appears to be, "Will Obama's victory be a 'Landslide' or a 'Sweep'?

(and.. Will his coat-tails be long enough to put finally put a meaningless 'R' on Joe Lie-berman's new closet sized Senate office door?)


by QTG on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 03:57:58 PM EST

Re: North Dakota? I mean, c'mon, North Dakota? (none / 0)

Recommended for writing about my home state.  


by chewie5656 on Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:40:23 PM EST


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